A warning of ‘war’ unheeded

(Credit: OLIVIER DOULIERY/AFP via Getty Images)

The day before the deadly attack on the US Capitol carried out by pro-Trump extremists, the Norfolk, VA field office of the FBI sent this dire warning to the bureau’s Washington, D.C. field office:

As of 5 January 2021, FBI Norfolk received information indicating calls for violence in response to ‘unlawful lockdowns’ to begin on 6 January 2021 in Washington. D.C. … An online thread discussed specific calls for violence to include stating ‘Be ready to fight. Congress needs to hear glass breaking, doors being kicked in, and blood from their BLM and Pantifa slave soldiers being spilled. Get violent. Stop calling this a march, or rally, or a protest. Go there ready for war. We get our President or we die. NOTHING else will achieve this goal.

That warning, briefed at the time to officials in the D.C. office and revealed earlier today by The Washington Post, was apparently ignored. Security at the Capitol was woefully inadequate and Capitol Police seemingly unprepared when the building was assaulted by a pro-Trump mob that numbered in the thousands. People died, including a Capitol Police officer, beaten to death by enraged, fanatical followers of Donald Trump.

And there may be worse yet to come. The FBI is warning that armed groups are planning a series of actions at state capitals around the country and again in Washington. D.C. beginning this weekend and continuing through Inauguration Day on Jan. 20. And late Monday, the new leadership of the Capitol Police briefed House Democrats on three violent right-wing plots planned in coming days against the government of the United States. One of those plots describes an armed attack to encircle the Capitol, Supreme Court, and White House. According to lawmakers:

… Capitol Police and the National Guard were preparing for potentially tens of thousands of armed protesters coming to Washington and were establishing rules of engagement for warfare. In general, the military and police don’t plan to shoot anyone until one of the rioters fires, but there could be exceptions.

Lawmakers were told that the plot to encircle the Capitol also included plans to surround the White House ― so that no one could harm Trump ― and the Supreme Court, simply to shut down the courts. The plan to surround the Capitol includes assassinating Democrats as well as Republicans who didn’t support Trump’s effort to overturn the election ― and allowing other Republicans to enter the building and control government.

Before going any further, let’s be absolutely clear about what’s being described here. These are not “armed protests,” the way these plans are being characterized by most of the media and, unfortunately, law enforcement agencies. These are terrorist plots.

Let’s remind ourselves of the definition. As I’ve written before:

Terrorism is the deliberate creation and exploitation of fear, through violence or the threat of violence, in the pursuit of political change.

By this criterion, the simplest and broadest definition that I teach my students and use in my own writing and research, the plans being made for armed actions by pro-Trump extremists in the next several days fit the label. And it fits what happened at the US Capitol last week as well.

My initial take on the attack on the Capitol didn’t go that far. In the moment I interpreted the events as a mob gone out of control, but not pre-planned and pre-meditated. The actions of many of those who breached the Capitol seemed to reinforce that impression, yahoos and clowns aimlessly wandering, taking selfies, and engaging in petty acts of juvenile vandalism.

But within that ludicrous mob were small teams of paramilitary extremists, kitted out in tactical gear, moving with purpose, carrying zip-tie handcuffs and apparently maps of the labyrinthine corridors and tunnels of the Capitol complex.

It is not a stretch to imagine that they had more in mind than spreading their feces in the halls of Congress.

It is not a stretch to imagine that we may have dodged a live-streamed massacre of lawmakers by mere moments.

Last October, my friend and fellow academic Vasabjit Banerjee wrote a piece at Just Security in which he suggested that based on the what we know about rebellion and insurgencies around the world, the dangers of armed insurgency in the United States are more real that most suspect. At the time I disagreed.

I’m starting to think that I was too quick to reach that conclusion. Just as I was too quick to deny the reality that Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol was an act of domestic terrorism.

The warnings that preceded Jan. 6, like the warnings that preceded the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, were unheeded. Will we make the same mistake over the next 10 days?

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