Which one of these statements sends a clear message?
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javid Zarif:
“I’m making a very serious statement that we don’t want war; we don’t want to engage in a military confrontation,” Mr. Zarif told CNN in an interview. “But we won’t blink to defend our territory.
President Donald J. Trump:
“There are many options. There’s the ultimate option, and there are options a lot less than that,” the president told reporters in Los Angeles, while announcing a move to increase sanctions on Iran.
I feel pretty confident that the Iranians are not bluffing. But how confident can anyone be about American intentions?
You tell me how all this is going to play out.
I’ll bite – Iran seems to have an upper hand in the Region over Saudi Arabia (& against POTUS) currently. Between its influence in Iraq and the instability of Yemen & Syria, they are feeling confident, right? Otherwise, why would they have attacked in the first place? Further, other world powers are taking the position that “this is Trump’s Problem” because of the whole nuclear deal debacle which also gives Iran more momentum. The kicker will be how strong a coalition can be built between UAE, Saudi Arabia, and whomever else the US tries to pull in (Probably Egypt?) to deter Iran from escalating tensions. I don’t know what Europe, Russia, or China have up their sleeves, but military action against Iran is ill-advised for the coalition, as Iran does sound ready for a head start on WWIII (Kind of a joke, kind of not). I think the coalition will be built successfully and will attempt to warn Iran, but without any physical display of force. Rather, they will show a card or two by displaying the numbers behind their coalition. Iran will continue to build it’s forces because of this, prolonging the conflict a little further. A fair assessment? I’m trying to be positive.
I don’t believe the Trump administration has the patience or acumen to build any kind of meaningful coalition. I think they bluster a bit, ramp up sanctions that won’t have meaningful impact, and then back down. That feels true to this presidency.
I think the real danger is miscalculation leading to a deeper crisis that no one wanted but no one can back out of. And then the shooting starts.
And for a look at what Iran can do, see this report from the Soufan Center.
https://thesoufancenter.org/research/irans-playbook-deconstructing-tehrans-regional-strategy/